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Elon Musk Predicts ‘Mild Recession’ in US for 18 Months


  • Elon Musk thinks the US will experience a mild or moderate recession that will last around 18 months. 
  • Fears of a recession have been bubbling up for months amid record inflation. 
  • The US government is trying to cool down the economy by raising interest rates. 

Elon Musk thinks the US is headed into a recession. 

The world’s richest man laid out his assessment of the US economy at Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting on Thursday. 

“Making macroeconomic prognostications is a recipe for disaster, but my guess is that we are past peak inflation and that we will have a recession,” the businessman said. “I’m just guessing here, this is total speculation. But I would guess it’s a mild recession for, I don’t know, 18 months or something like that.”

He said that since Tesla needs to order commodities several months in advance, it has some insight into where prices are heading over time. One bit of good news for consumers: Musk said that the prices Tesla is seeing are trending downward, which “suggests that we are past peak inflation.”

He said he expects inflation to “drop rapidly,” though he acknowledged the situation could change. 

For months now, economists have sounded the alarm that the US could be headed toward a recession. Record inflation has pushed the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in an effort to cool down the economy and slow spending. Stocks have tumbled this year after a long bull market, and large companies from Coinbase to Tesla have announced large-scale layoffs to cut costs. 

Musk said earlier this year that Tesla would look to cut 10% of its white-collar staff. Rival carmaker Ford is preparing to cut roughly 8,000 positions, Bloomberg reported. 

Still, not all economists are in agreement and there are still signs that the economy is still relatively healthy. The organization that declares when the US enters a recession — the National Bureau of Economic Research — hasn’t made the call yet. 



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